Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

This is a funny story from India. Please do not mistake this for figment of imagination because this is scarily true and happening in real time as we speak. The Prime Minister of India is currently travelling- either in India or abroad, addressing people and trying to earn good will for his newly formed government. The problem is, he cannot help but oversell his achievements. He is constantly in campaign mode never once stopping to actually govern. Over the last 180 days, he has travelled abroad for 40 days (roughly) and spent almost 25 days campaigning for the state elections in India. So roughly 50% of the time has been spent in pure bluster with no productive work (unless you get all philosophical and say he is representing the country every day).


Now, comes the kicker. Since he has had no time to settle down and think through policies, there have not been many initiatives from the Government except a few photo ops and renaming old schemes and attempting to target them better. Obviously, we would understand and would treat him with deference if he would have said as much. Problem is, he goes around tom-tom ing about achieving more in 6 months than what previous Governments have done in 5 years and one is obligated to ask respectfully, Mr. Prime minister, what exactly has your Government achieved. The response would make you both laungh and cry. Apart from rising and setting of the sun, every other thing is being counted as “achievements” under the new regime. Schemes that have been running for decades now are being packaged as new ideas. Government response to help citizen during natural calamities is termed as achievement and votes are being sought on it. I feel disgusted by the narrow mindedness of the person who is supposed to be my leader and represent my country is so busy representing just himself.


I sure hope in the days to come people will notice more and more what I have noticed and perhaps motivate the PM to switch from campaign mode to govern mode. Until such a time arrives, India is nothing but a stage and the Government is nothing but a comic providing unlimited laughter to us citizens.


So long..

Crash and burn....

So, one of my colleagues got married this week and the first thing I told her was “so yet another crashes and burns eh?” with my usual cunning smile and what is very famously known as “irritating smirk” amongst people who know me. People around me froze and there were a few uncomfortable silent moments before the colleague smiled and waved me off. Man! she got the joke but so many of them standing there did not. “Just because you are single, you seem to have an opinion about marriage. It is not that bad” whispered one of the girls standing next to me. I just smiled blankly at the unasked / unwelcome advice and moved back to my desk thinking to myself, “Man!!… I need to shut up more often”. Then, on the way back home I thought to myself… “Did that make sense? Why do we single men often make sarcastic comments about marriage and why do married people think it’s a case of sour grapes?” Frankly, I am yet to find any friend who has advised me to get married because it is good for you. It is usually the other way around “Marriage is not that bad”, they often say.


How do I tell a chef, who asks for feedback, that the food is awful. “Hey, it was not bad...” Now, do you see my apprehension believing my married friends and colleagues? Marriage seems a lot like sex or God, each one experiences it differently and nobody can put that experience across in coherent words. We often hear the “Ummmm” / “well …..” / “You see……” / *awkward silence* preceding the description of the experience being married. Men are more dismissing of the notion and depending on how close you are to the man, you can either get to hear “Marriage is a f**king headache” or “too large a price for sex”. Women are more subtle by nature and hence you probably will not get blunt statements from them, but, when a woman bites her lips and says “It’s not that bad” you know she means exactly what the men say bluntly. So here is my follow up, if it is so much work, why do people marry?


Nobody knows, but everyone will argue using a few standard points. Some of the arguments about marriage are as follows and please don’t call me a cynic, if I poke holes into them.

1. Marriage is about togetherness – my take is if togetherness is so natural, why do couples look so ill at ease with each other. Why do men whisper to their friend around their wives and why do women send their husbands away when they plan a girls’ night. Me thinks, the togetherness is for the cameras because I know of room-mates who are more in sync than a man and his wife.

2. Marriage is a compromise – I don’t know about you, but to me compromise is a loss of face. It is the fig leaf one uses when one cannot accept defeat. If marriage is always about winning, why do couples always describe it as a “compromise” is beyond me.

3. We all need someone with us – I accept the premise of human beings as social animals and hence we all need someone in our life. What is beyond me is that someone needs to be a person from opposite sex and the reason you are together should be marriage.

4. You need to have a family – this is the most confusing reason to be married, having kids. So it is not about you having fun, it is more about giving up fun to start taking responsibility of a wife/ husband and children and never be the same fun person you were before. I mean who can spare the time eh?


So now, you get my point why people describe marriages as “not that bad”?


Now, I am all for marriage if it’s the thing for you and you feel at ease in the setting but why frown at the people who do not fit into it and wish to live their lives a different way. I have always seen married people advice singles to get married, never the vice versa. Maybe it’s just envy that cannot let the married people see the singles live on happily. I do understand that sex is an important need of life and marriage is a healthy way to enjoy sex and if need be, to start a family. But, I see so many messed up people around me that I feel procreation should be a privilege extended to a few whose lineage might benefit the world and the rest of us should only be allowed to have sex without resulting in children. In mythology, we know of stories where women chose to procreate with Gods and not their husbands, maybe, just maybe there lies your hint that just because you can, you need not have kids.


I feel obligated to declare that I am not single by choice or a confirmed bachelor. I have seen some messed up things in relationships which have made me wonder if I am made for it. I was about to be married but I am not. All I am saying is this; I don’t know if I am glad I was saved or sorry that I missed. So before you go “Just because he is single…..” I feel I should tell you that I have had the buffet and barfed. Again, I am not for or against marriage; I am just making the case that it’s not as important as it is made out to be.


So long….

Monday, December 1, 2014

It's just not entrepreneurship

Wikipedia defines entrepreneurship as “the process of starting a business or other organization. The entrepreneur develops a business model, acquires the human and other required resources, and is fully responsible for its success or failure. Entrepreneurship operates within an entrepreneurship ecosystem” and Cronyism as “partiality to long-standing friends, especially by appointing them to positions of authority, regardless of their qualifications. Hence, cronyism is contrary in practice and principle to meritocracy”. I am sure the definition in the Oxford dictionary is not very different from this. What the definition conceals or does not amplify enough is that the entrepreneur not only starts with the controlling equity but also starts with the responsibility of paid up capital and any further liquidity that is needed to maintain the company’s operating cycle. In India, the lines between entrepreneurship and cronyism fades into irrelevance and if you pick out 500 cases of startups who made big in India, 498 would have been successful only because of cronyism.


I might be accused of broad stroking but I would insist that sadly enough I am not exaggerating. Don’t get me wrong, I am not for a moment saying that Indians are not enterprising; I am just saying that Indians are so adept in “jugaad” or in English “doing what it takes” that we forever look for loopholes within the law and abuse it – which would be fine until you understand that loop hole was left in there by our lawmakers at the behest of these so called entrepreneurs. I can vouch that if an international auditing firm did an audit today, most of the billionaires of India would be proved as cronies who made money by abusing proximity with people in power rather than based on genius of innovation. I often wonder if only Indian entrepreneurs would channel their energy, which they spend on generating loop holes, into investing in research and innovation, India would have already produced the next coolest startup company with a $2bn IPO. The sad part of the story is that Indian entrepreneurship is so bereft of ethics that we generate the ideas, the capital, the land, the operating capital based on cronyism. It’s a shame that the Government is not a majority stakeholder in equity of these companies because they sure do all the hard work to keep these billionaires and their companies up and working. It is said the promoter owes a fiduciary responsibility to the shareholders, in India; the Government executes this fiduciary responsibility.


Are we doing well then? Well, it would seem like we are, actually we are not. Generating value for the company by risk free profits is a risky proposition for even a quarter, yet, year after year most companies in India are generating “value” for its shareholders by risk free profits. Consequently, the change of CEO / or board of directors has a lukewarm response at the stock market and trading pattern but should a benefactor Government or minister go out of power and all hell breaks loose the share prices takes a major hit and shareholders lose value of their savings. Now, you would ask, the promoter or the majority stakeholder should also lose value and will be hit maximum, should she/ he/ they not worry about of this pattern of trading? And here lies the kicker. NO! The shareholding pattern would tell you that the entire paid up capital for the firm was from a debt issued to the promoter(s) by a bank who has accepted the proximity to the Government as valid collateral while issuing the debt. This is scary, what this means is the only stake of the promoter in the company is her/his/their ability to abuse their proximity with power centers in lieu of which they hold majority stake in the company. You will also find that the “asset of cronyism” is so heavily levered that the company spends most of its revenue in servicing its debts raised for the paid up capital. And yet, surprisingly, the company share is trading at premium without any growth prospects and proper revenue forecasting.


This is because the unseen stakeholder aka the Government is busy paddling below the surface generating value for the shareholders by executing the fiduciary responsibility on behalf of the promoter. I will not get into the topic of how such crony enterprises are a bad deal for small investors who purchase equity. That is a separate issue that needs specific attention. I will only highlight how these crony enterprises are bad for the economy. So coming back to the point of Government executing fiduciary responsibility, consequently, these companies get special use to natural resources and out of turn benefits from various arms of the Government, including revenue services who allow too many illegal tax deductions to help pad the net profit. The resources acquired by these companies are then gold plated and the end products are sold back to Government at a premium price. So, the Government not only provides raw materials, it also provides as a market to finished goods at price premium. The tax dollars of citizen are spent in helping few promoters make money without any sort of investment or plan and this relationship works perfectly till the Government is in power. Once a new Government comes in, these companies lose share value as the new Government launches a witch hunt against these cronies and stops all benefits extended to them (effectively hampering their revenue cycle) while launching their own set of new cronies who suddenly become the budding prospects of our “enterprising India”. Then, there are few cronies who are in good books of all political dispensations and will benefit no matter who is in power. One has to wonder if this kind of capitalism actually helps a nation or destroys a nation. I leave it to your judgment.


Should a promoter fall out of favor with the Government and start to lose share value due to impacts to revenue generation, they reach a point where their operations are hit due to liquidity crunch and since these companies are typically highly levered, they will not be able to generate operating capital. It would seem that promoters will care enough to raise money by investing their private money (given the fact they are majority stakeholders), but more often than not, promoters let the company bleed. There are job losses within the company and investment by people in the stock goes kaput. The original debts (paid up capital) are held to ransom by the promoters and either the banks are forced to restructure the debts or issue fresh debt to restart the operating cycle. Since the company was not based on sound plan to begin with, this new operating capital cannot sustain the company for very long and then begins the long process of litigations / bankruptcy / job losses etc. Meanwhile the promoters are living a comfortable life as the law protects their private assets from being liquated to sustain the company. So this is how, these cronies end up wreaking a havoc on the economy while being exposed to minimum risk should a company undergoes bankruptcy.


The Governor of Reserve bank, Dr Raghuram Rajan, in an address very recently raised many of the points covered in this post. He touched upon the way shareholding is structured and the absolute impunity with which most promoters operate risking the economy at large. Dr. Rajan remarked “India is a country with many sick companies but very few sick promoters”. It would seem the cronyism in India is like riding a tiger (borrowing phrase from Ramlinga Raju of Saytam fame), you cannot get off without being mauled or killed. One should hope for better things to come along but any major change is possible only after a great bust killing an entire generation of crony companies almost bring the economy of India to a grinding halt. Does anyone else have a plan?


So long….